It has not been a good year for sales bonuses at Europe’s truck dealers, reports Transport News European correspondent Peter Schmitz, as new truck registrations fall sharply in 2025.
Word from our friends at European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), is that the European Union’s commercial vehicle market had a ‘challenging’ year.
A clear sign, said ACEA, of the tough economic environment – unless you deal in buses.
Let’s look at the numbers posted verbatim by the ACEA:
- New EU van registrations fell by 8.8%, with the three largest markets contributing to the downturn. France recorded the steepest drop with an 5.6% decline, followed by Germany (‑5.4%) and Italy (-5%). In contrast, Spain saw a surge in registrations, rising by 11.7%.
- New EU truck registrations also fell by 6.2%, totalling 307,460 units. This downturn was driven in volume by a 5.4% decline in heavy-truck registrations, alongside a 9.9% decrease in medium-truck demand. All major markets contracted, with Germany (-12.2%) experiencing double-digit decline, followed by France (-9%) and Spain (-3.6%).
- Meanwhile, new EU bus registrations grew 7.5% in 2025, reaching a total of 38,238 units. Among major markets, growth was led by Germany (+28%) and Poland (+16.6%), while Italy (-15.9%) and Spain (-4%) continued to see declines.
Diesel – and variations of it – remain the fuel of choice, accounting for 93.2% of new registrations. Electrically-chargeable trucks above 3.5 tonnes now secure 4.2% of the market, up from 2.3% last year.
The Netherlands (+205.4%), despite a sharp 40.8% decline in total truck registrations, along with Germany (+39.6%) and France (+30.5%), were the main drivers of this trend.
Here, ACEA said ‘the pace of decarbonisation remains insufficient, citing inadequate charging infrastructure, high energy prices, unfavourable total cost of ownership and fragmented policy frameworks as key obstacles to wider adoption of zero-emission trucks’.
So why are the numbers so bad? It’s a complicated picture.
Truck operators from Portugal to Poland don’t have the confidence to replace their trucks on their usual timescales, many have extended the service life of rolling stock, a smaller number have downsized the fleet rather than replace, others have switched to become a dreaded freight forwarder.
While freight volumes are increasing, those carrying the loads are consolidating driven by economic pressures, market structure, and strategic mergers and acquisitions. This restricts choice, and rates usually suffer as a consequence.
Plus, a merger will also affect capital expenditure for new assets.
Overall, this doesn’t account for seismic shifts in truck registrations but there is enough activity for it not to register (forgive the pun) on ACEA’s spreadsheets.
So, what can we look forward to for 2026? In a nutshell, moderate recovery.
Analysts expect the European heavy truck market to grow modestly in 2026, with new truck deliveries rising in the mid-single-digits to around 385,000 units (for vehicles over 3.5 tonnes), which would be slightly above the 10-year average. This recovery is seen as driven mainly by replacement demand rather than strong fleet expansion.
In case you were wondering, yes, that last paragraph was pulled together by ChatGPT.
For me, when asked about these things I always fall back on a quote from the former German football coach Sepp Herberger: “The ball is round, the game lasts 90 minutes. Everything else is pure theory.”
